As the 2025 home-and-away season of the AFL Women’s (AFLW) competition approaches its final round, pundits, players, and fans alike agree: this is the closest, most open season yet. Never before have so many clubs been in contention for a spot in the finals.
“Going into Round 12, this is easily the most that has been on the line for so many clubs,” said former All-Australian and commentator Kate McCarthy in an interview with ABC Sport. Her words capture the pulse of a competition that has seen incredible parity and unpredictability throughout the season.
A Season of Tight Margins
While one team has dominated from start to finish — the North Melbourne Football Club (Roos) — the battle for nearly every other position on the ladder remains wide open.
According to Fox Sports, as of Round 11:
- North Melbourne sit at 11-0 and are already locked into first place, cementing their status as the powerhouse of the season.
- The next tier (2nd to 4th) remains fiercely contested between Hawthorn, Melbourne, and Brisbane, all of whom are fighting for crucial home-ground advantages in finals.
- Even more remarkable, 11 teams remain mathematically in contention for a top-eight spot heading into the final weekend.
Clubs that once seemed comfortable are suddenly under pressure, while others previously written off have surged back into contention.
This has led many to label 2025 as the most competitive AFLW season yet. Aside from North Melbourne’s near-perfect campaign, the rest of the league is tightly packed. McCarthy summarised it perfectly:
“It builds so much excitement … and it only supports how close this finals series is going to be.”
What’s at Stake
With so much uncertainty heading into the last round, every goal, every percentage point, and every possession matters. Here’s what the key battles look like:
1. Securing a Finals Spot
For clubs hovering around the middle of the table, this weekend will define their season.
Teams like Carlton Football Club (currently 5th) are in control of their own destiny but cannot afford a slip-up. According to Fox Sports:
- Carlton will guarantee a finals berth with a win.
- A loss could still see them through — but only if other results fall their way.
For St Kilda (6th) and West Coast Eagles (7th), the situation is even more precarious. A win would almost certainly seal their entry into the finals, but a loss — combined with favourable results for rival teams — could see them cruelly miss out.
2. Climbing into the Top 4 & Avoiding Early Elimination
For the clubs already assured of playing finals, their focus shifts to ladder position. Finishing in the top four offers a double chance and crucial home-ground advantage.
Hawthorn, Melbourne, and Brisbane all find themselves battling for these coveted positions. Securing second or third would allow them to avoid facing North Melbourne early — a huge strategic benefit.
As McCarthy explained:
“The top four means more than just pride — it’s your ticket to control your finals fate. Falling to fifth or sixth could mean instant elimination.”
3. Preserving Momentum & Club Pride
Then there are the clubs that see Round 12 as a chance to make history.
West Coast, for example, are on the verge of qualifying for their first-ever AFLW finals series. The excitement around the club has been palpable, with fans calling it a landmark moment in their rebuild.
On the flip side, Adelaide Crows, one of the competition’s most decorated teams, are in danger of missing the finals altogether. McCarthy noted:
“If you’d told anyone at the start of the season that Adelaide might miss finals, they wouldn’t have believed you.”
It’s a reminder that even the giants of the league aren’t immune to the AFLW’s growing parity.
Key Match-Ups for Round 12
Round 12 is packed with season-defining games that will determine who survives and who falls short.
- Hawthorn vs North Melbourne: Hawthorn need a win to secure a top-two finish and a home qualifying final. But with North unbeaten, it’s a monumental challenge. A loss could see Hawthorn drop as low as fourth.
- West Coast vs Carlton: Arguably the most anticipated clash of the round. West Coast could leapfrog Carlton with a win, while the Blues will be desperate to cement their finals place and improve percentage.
- Adelaide vs Fremantle: Both clubs sit on the cusp of elimination. A win is essential for Adelaide, while Fremantle can spoil the party and finish their season on a high.
- Sydney, St Kilda, and Port Adelaide also remain in contention, adding more drama to an already unpredictable finale.
Every match will have a ripple effect on the ladder, keeping fans glued to the scoreboards across the weekend.
The Broader Significance
This thrilling end to the season highlights just how far the AFLW has come. Beyond the statistics, the close competition signifies several deeper developments:
- Growth of the League: An unpredictable, evenly matched competition sustains interest and attracts new audiences. Fans crave drama, and 2025 has delivered it in abundance.
- Player Motivation: With everything on the line, teams are leaving nothing to chance. Preparation, performance, and mental resilience have all been tested.
- Club Culture Shifts: Emerging success stories can reshape entire clubs — from recruiting strategies to membership growth. A single finals appearance can change a team’s future.
- Media and Sponsorship: The expanded competitiveness keeps more markets alive, increasing television ratings and corporate interest in AFLW.
- Competitive Balance: The ability for smaller clubs to challenge the traditional powerhouses bodes well for the league’s sustainability and fairness.
In short, this season has proven that AFLW parity is real — and it’s here to stay.
What to Watch in the Final Round
Several key factors will likely determine which clubs make it through:
- Percentage Battles: With so many teams tied on points, percentage (points for/against) could be the difference between finishing 7th or 9th. A single blowout or narrow loss could decide a club’s fate.
- Injuries & Form: Coaches will be desperate to keep key players fit and firing. Teams peaking at the right time will carry huge momentum into finals.
- Psychological Edge: Some teams — like Melbourne and Brisbane — have finals experience, while others are navigating uncharted territory. Mental composure will matter as much as talent.
- Fixture Quirks: Since the AFLW fixture isn’t a full round-robin, luck of the draw matters. Some teams face top-four contenders; others play lower-ranked opponents — and that can dramatically shift outcomes.
Final Word
As the AFLW’s 2025 home-and-away season comes to a close, one thing is certain: this is the most exciting and unpredictable finish in league history.
Only North Melbourne’s dominance is assured; everything else remains in flux. Eleven clubs still have something to fight for — whether it’s pride, history, or a chance at glory.
Fans are bracing for a weekend of high drama, emotional swings, and unforgettable football moments. When the final sirens sound across the country, hearts will be broken, dreams will be realised, and a new chapter of AFLW history will be written.
No matter the outcome, this season will be remembered as the one that truly showed the depth, resilience, and growth of women’s football in Australia.
